US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns

Romney has surged in a few polls since the debate on Wednesday, leading to an increase in percentages in the important battleground states of Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.

As it stands if you average out all recent polls:

Those within 5% or less -
Colorado: Obama +3.1 Romney +
Florida: Tie Romney +
Iowa: Obama +3.5 No Movement
Nevada: Obama +4.6 Romney +
North Carolina: Romney +0.8 No Movement
Ohio: Obama +3.0 Romney +
Virginia: Obama +0.4 Romney +

Those between 5 and 10% -
Michigan: Obama +10.0 No Movement
Missouri: Romney +5.2 No Movement
New Hampshire: Obama +6.0 Obama +
Pennsylvania: Obama +8.0 No Movement
Wisconsin: Obama +7.6 No Movement

A few somewhat significant updates today, as Romney has shifted into the lead in two important swing states. On top of that, he is making gains in several others. The polls are tight enough that at this point, if the election were today, it could go either way.

States that are very close (5.0% or less separating the candidates):

Colorado (9 votes) - Romney +0.5
Florida (29 votes) - Romney +0.7
Iowa (6 votes) - Obama +3.2
Nevada (6 votes) - Obama +3.5
North Carolina (15 votes) - Romney +3.0
Ohio (18 votes) - Obama +0.7
Virginia (13 votes) - Obama +0.3

States that are leaning to a specific candidate but are close (5.1% to 10.0%):

Michigan (16 votes) - Obama +6.0
Missouri (10 votes) - Romney +5.2
New Hampshire (4 votes) - Obama +6.0
Pennsylvania (20 votes) - Obama +6.0
Wisconsin (10 votes) - Obama +6.6

Other states that are less than 10% include Arizona (leaning Romney), Minnesota (leaning Obama), New Mexico (leaning Obama), and Oregon (leaning Obama), but these four are not necessarily considered significant states in this year's election.

Overall, Romney seems to be gaining more and more as the days go on. The election is now under 26 days away; we're on the home stretch.

Tonight, Republican VP pick Paul Ryan will debate the Vice President of the United States Joe Biden. Some think Biden's experience will shine through, while others believe he makes way too many verbal mistakes to last the whole debate. Personally, I think that if Obama let us down in his performance, we can't expect a ton better from Biden. My prediction: he loses and loses bad, which may add a bit to Romney's momentum.

Obama went up a couple of decimal points in some states, but in the overall aspect of things, Romney is experiencing a net gain. Rather than 8, we're now looking closely into 12 important states. The updated polling averages in ABC order:

Colorado - Romney +0.6
Florida - Tie
Iowa - Obama +3.2
Michigan - Obama + 3.7
Missouri - Romney +5.2
Nevada - Obama +1.6
New Hampshire - Obama +4.5
North Carolina - Romney +3.3
Ohio - Obama +1.3
Pennsylvania - Obama +4.5
Virginia - Obama +0.6
Wisconsin - Obama +2.3

Note that in many cases, anything below 3-5% is considered a tie because undecided voters are not factored in.

So Jarrett, who do you think won the debate tonight?

Richie wrote:

So Jarrett, who do you think won the debate tonight?

Well, I think it was closer than the first one. Romney clearly beat Obama, whereas this time, the answer is a bit less clear to me. Though it is clear enough that I think Ryan outperformed Biden by a good enough amount to give it to him. Personally, I can't attach myself to much of anything Biden says, especially last night, because his demeanor was rude and arrogant. He made the whole thing look like a joke. He laughed throughout the whole thing, made gestures, got pushy with the moderator (and Ryan), and interrupted Ryan on his time a whopping 82 times in 90 minutes. It was pathetic.

And now, a few changes in today's polls as we near the election -- just 25 days out.

Colorado - Romney +0.7 (previously R+0.5; Republican momentum) - 9 electoral votes
Florida - Romney +2.0 (previously tie; Republican momentum) - 29 electoral votes
Iowa - Obama +3.2 (previously D+3.2; neutral momentum) - 6 electoral votes
Michigan - Obama +4.4 (previously D+3.7; Democratic momentum) - 16 electoral votes
Missouri - Romney +5.2 (previously R+5.2; neutral momentum) - 10 electoral votes
Nevada - Obama +1.6 (previously D+0.7; Democratic momentum) - 6 electoral votes
New Hampshire - Obama +0.7 (previously D+4.5; Republican momentum) - 4 electoral votes
North Carolina - Romney +3.3 (previously R+3.3; neutral momentum) - 15 electoral votes
Ohio - Obama +1.3 (previously D+1.3; neutral momentum) - 18 electoral votes
Pennsylvania - Obama +4.5 (previously D+4.5; neutral momentum) - 20 electoral votes
Virginia - Obama +0.4 (previously D+0.6; Republican momentum) - 13 electoral votes
Wisconsin - Obama +2.3 (previously D+2.3; neutral momentum) - 10 electoral votes

Jarrett wrote:

And now, a few changes in today's polls as we near the election -- just 25 days out.

Colorado - Romney +0.7 (previously R+0.5; Republican momentum) - 9 electoral votes
Florida - Romney +2.0 (previously tie; Republican momentum) - 29 electoral votes
Iowa - Obama +3.2 (previously D+3.2; neutral momentum) - 6 electoral votes
Michigan - Obama +4.4 (previously D+3.7; Democratic momentum) - 16 electoral votes
Missouri - Romney +5.2 (previously R+5.2; neutral momentum) - 10 electoral votes
Nevada - Obama +1.6 (previously D+0.7; Democratic momentum) - 6 electoral votes
New Hampshire - Obama +0.7 (previously D+4.5; Republican momentum) - 4 electoral votes
North Carolina - Romney +3.3 (previously R+3.3; neutral momentum) - 15 electoral votes
Ohio - Obama +1.3 (previously D+1.3; neutral momentum) - 18 electoral votes
Pennsylvania - Obama +4.5 (previously D+4.5; neutral momentum) - 20 electoral votes
Virginia - Obama +0.4 (previously D+0.6; Republican momentum) - 13 electoral votes
Wisconsin - Obama +2.3 (previously D+2.3; neutral momentum) - 10 electoral votes

The only change thus far today - Romney has now surged to a +3.2 lead in Florida, the most electorally significant of the 2012 swing states.

Tonight is the second debate between President Obama and Governor Romney, which will probably prove key in the race. Rarely do debates have the immense impact the first one has had on the campaigns, so it is expected that the results of this one, if at all decisive, might sway a few voters or so. Even if it doesn't, there is still one more on Monday.

Updated polls from the battleground states:

Colorado - Romney +0.7
Florida - Romney +2.5
Iowa - Obama +2.3
Michigan - Obama +4.4
Missouri - Romney +7.7
Nevada - Obama +1.6
New Hampshire - Obama +0.5
North Carolina - Romney +4.7
Ohio - Obama +2.2
Pennsylvania - Obama +5.0
Virginia - Obama +0.8
Wisconsin - Obama +2.3

Just as important, the Republicans are trying to regain control of the Senate. It is almost certain they will hold onto the House of Representatives, but the currently Democratic-controlled Senate is too close to call it one way. According to RCP, 45 Democrats are safe and 43 Republicans are safe, leaving 12 too close to call. One of these toss ups includes Linda McMahon's race over in Connecticut. She is neck and neck with her Democratic opponent. The 12 states with a Senate race that is too close to call include Arizona, Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Reactions to the debate from last night are mixed: some are claiming an Obama win and others are giving it to Romney. One thing is certain and that is that it was closer than the first one for sure. A large portion of respondents to post-debate polls are claiming a draw.

The moderator (again) has come under fire for being biased towards Obama and being too involved in the debate, which was supposed to have a town hall style format, where voters would ask the questions. Some say the moderator took over this role a bit too much.

In terms of polls, New Hampshire and Wisconsin have gotten closer - benefiting Romney - since the debate and Obama has improved in Nevada. Direct reaction from others are still somewhat unclear.

The election is now 20 days away.

Romney is up in the polls in three states today, bringing Iowa closer to his reach and taking the lead in New Hampshire, also managing to bring Virginia to a tie.

At this point, Missouri might be dropped from the list of toss up states.

(29) Florida - Romney +2.5
(20) Pennsylvania - Obama +5.0
(18) Ohio - Obama +2.5
(16) Michigan - Obama +5.0
(15) North Carolina - Romney +5.6
(13) Virginia - Tie
(10) Missouri - Romney +10.3
(10) Wisconsin - Obama +2.8
(9) Colorado - Romney +0.2
(6) Iowa - Obama +2.4
(6) Nevada - Obama +3.0
(4) New Hampshire - Romney +1.0

(29) Florida - Romney +2.1
(20) Pennsylvania - Obama +5.0
(18) Ohio - Obama +2.1
(16) Michigan - Obama +5.0
(15) North Carolina - Romney +5.6
(13) Virginia - Tie
(10) Missouri - Romney +10.3
(10) Wisconsin - Obama +2.8
(9) Colorado - Romney +0.2
(6) Iowa - Obama +2.4
(6) Nevada - Obama +3.0
(4) New Hampshire - Romney +1.0

The final debate is tomorrow. As of today, we are only sixteen days away from the election. It's scary close.

In 2008, Democrat Barack Obama won 28/50 states, 1 territory (DC), and one district (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district), while Republican John McCain won 22/50 states. Obama received 365/538 electoral votes, while McCain had 173/538. In total, 69,456,897 people voted for Obama, while 59,934,814 voted McCain, a margin of just under 10 million votes. Based on the popular vote, Obama had 52.9% of the vote, while McCain had 45.7%. 1.4% voted for someone else.

Interestingly enough, in 2008, eleven of the twelve currently recognized "swing states" went for Obama, but now eleven of these twelve are within a margin of 6%. It is much closer this year; at this point four years ago, many pundits were already decided upon an Obama victory, but now, the predictions are much more split.

Intrade, a website where people can make predictions and buy/sell shares of their choices has Obama at a roughly 60% chance to Romney's approximate 40%. This margin, though, has been decreasing on a daily basis. Right now, the only individual state standing in the way of a Romney victory - according to these predictors - is Ohio, worth eighteen total electoral votes.

In 2008, the 11/12 swing states that went to Obama were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. The only to go to McCain - also the closest margin of all 50 states in 2008 - was Missouri, which - despite a momentary scare as Obama rose in the polls there temporarily - now appears to stand firmly in Romney's corner.

If you look at the current polling averages of these eleven states, you will notice that five of them have already turned their back on Obama, as Romney leads - albeit very slightly - or has tied Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia. If he were to in fact win these five (or even if he were to lose just New Hampshire or just Colorado), he'd only need Ohio to win. Don't be misled; there are other ways to victory if Romney does in fact end up losing in Ohio. It would just be a bit more difficult. Despite the other six still leaning Obama - again, very slightly - there are plenty more undecideds left to tilt Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to Romney's side.

Another very interesting aspect of this election is that there is a possibility of an electoral college tie. There always is that chance, but this year it is actually more plausible than it usually is. Although possible, it's fairly unlikely because of voting tendencies. For instance, if Romney were to win Pennsylvania - the state he should probably have the most trouble winning - it would be fair to assume that Romney would win every other state in question (if he was able to win the hardest state of the 12, he'd most likely win the other 11 along with it). But if this logic for whatever reason did not apply, if Romney failed to take Ohio but took 7/12, winning Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia, this would bring him to 269 electoral votes. This means that given Obama wins in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would bring him to 269 as well with no states remaining to break the tie. In case of a tie, the House of Representatives - safely Republican - would then elect the president, which means a tie obviously benefits Romney. Similarly, the Senate would elect the vice president. The Senate right now has a Democratic majority, though it may not come the new session of Congress. If it tied or went to the Republicans, it would be safe to say they would vote in Paul Ryan as VP, but if the Democrats kept control of it and did not want to cooperate in electing Ryan, we could actually witness a Romney/Biden ticket. If you don't count Missouri as a swing state, but count the other 11, there are 32 different ways a tie could be the result of the election.

Two weeks from tomorrow!

Tonight marks the final presidential debate of this election cycle, tonight with a main focus on foreign policy.

Romney trounces him again

White guy wrote:

Romney trounces him again

Did you watch a different debate than I did? Because Obama definitely won that.

TJ! wrote:

White guy wrote:

Romney trounces him again

Did you watch a different debate than I did? Because Obama definitely won that.

Obama got owned hardcore again, half the things Obama said were flat out lies. Even CNN said Romney won.

White guy wrote:

TJ! wrote:

White guy wrote:

Romney trounces him again

Did you watch a different debate than I did? Because Obama definitely won that.

Obama got owned hardcore again, half the things Obama said were flat out lies. Even CNN said Romney won.

Really? All Romney did was repeat what Obama said half the time and just phrased it differently. And Obama was definitely not the one lying here. Romney's known for going against what he actually stands for and this debate is no different. Plus his foreign policy is shit. In my book it's 2-1 for Obama.

TJ! wrote:

White guy wrote:

TJ! wrote:

White guy wrote:

Romney trounces him again

Did you watch a different debate than I did? Because Obama definitely won that.

Obama got owned hardcore again, half the things Obama said were flat out lies. Even CNN said Romney won.

Really? All Romney did was repeat what Obama said half the time and just phrased it differently. And Obama was definitely not the one lying here. Romney's known for going against what he actually stands for and this debate is no different. Plus his foreign policy is shit. In my book it's 2-1 for Obama.

Obama said his first stop when getting elected was visiting the troops which was a lie it took him nearly 3 months to do so
Obama said he hasn't alienated Israel as we've seen that is a complete lie
Obama claimed to have gotten Osama bin Laden, again he didn't do it he just listened to his military adviser and said yes we can get him.
In my book it is currently 3-0 Romney and 4-0 overall for the GOP. Obama got shown to be the fool that he is.

I don't think this debate did anything for either of them. In my book it's 2-0-1 for Romney and then 1-0 for Ryan. For TJ to say that Obama definitely won isn't something I can agree with, but saying Romney hardcore outperformed Obama like Dan is alluding to is also a bit much for me.

For me, the fact of the matter remains that Obama isn't getting it done. He needs to go.

It doesn't seem like the final debate did much of anything to either of the candidates' polling numbers. It is still neck and neck. Some updates:

(29) Florida - Romney +1.8
(20) Pennsylvania - Obama + 4.8
(18) Ohio - Obama +2.1
(16) Michigan - Obama +5.0
(15) North Carolina - Romney +5.6
(13) Virginia - Tie
(10) Minnesota - Obama +7.3 (replacing Missouri on RCP)
(10) Wisconsin - Obama +2.7
(9) Colorado - Romney +0.2
(6) Iowa - Obama +2.0
(6) Nevada - Obama +2.7
(4) New Hampshire - Obama +0.8

Obama will be reelected.

Joey wrote:

Obama will be reelected.

Reason being?

Even though we are quite caught up on who will win electorally (because that is what is really going to decide the winner of the election), it should also be interesting to see how the popular vote turns out.

Barack Obama received more votes than any other candidate in US history in a single election back in 2008. Second place is George W. Bush in 2004.

Here in 2012, Obama will not receive the amount of votes he did previously (opposite from Bush, as Bush received more votes when running for re-election than he did originally).

(29) Florida - Romney +1.8
(20) Pennsylvania - Obama + 4.8
(18) Ohio - Obama +2.3
(16) Michigan - Obama +4.0
(15) North Carolina - Romney +3.8
(13) Virginia - Romney +1.2
(10) Minnesota - Obama +7.3 (replacing Missouri on RCP)
(10) Wisconsin - Obama +2.3
(9) Colorado - Tie
(6) Iowa - Obama +2.3
(6) Nevada - Obama +2.5
(4) New Hampshire - Obama +1.1