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 US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:56 am

Let's do some math.

For those of you who don't know, you need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency out of a total 538.

States that are definitely voting for Obama (with their electoral value in parentheses):
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).

This means that Obama definitely has 227 electoral votes.

States that are definitely voting for Romney (with their electoral value in parentheses):
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (.8.), Louisiana (.8.), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (.8.), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).

This means that Romney definitely has 205 electoral votes.

States that will probably go for Obama:

Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (3), Wisconsin (10).

If Obama does actually win those four, this would bring him to 265 compared to Romney's 205.

Which brings it down to these four states:

Florida (29), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Virginia (13).

If Obama were to win any one of these four, assuming he won all the others listed under him, he would win the election and be re-elected. If Romney were to win all four, it would bring his electoral vote count to 271, which would win him the election. Alternatively, if Iowa voted Obama, if Romney could pick up Wisconsin for instance, and still win with 275 electoral votes.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Jul 18, 2012 2:24 pm

I figured since news/politics is my "discussion group" focus, I should probably update this...

The talk about who Mitt Romney will choose as his vice presidential running mate is beginning to heat up. A top Romney campaign official has stated that no decision has been made, and that Romney will announce his pick when a decision is finally reached. The time frame for this selection could be any time between now and the Republican Convention in late August. Typically, candidates announce their running mates in late July or early/mid August.

What many are thinking the top five names are as of now (with the ticket names in parentheses to show how it would look/sound):

- Ohio Senator Rob Portman (Romney/Portman)
- Former Minnesota Governor/Congressman Tim Pawlenty (Romney/Pawlenty)
- Florida Senator Marco Rubio (Romney/Rubio)
- Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (Romney/Ryan)
- Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (Romney/Jindal)

People have tossed around other names such as Chris Christie, Donald Trump (haha), and others.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:58 am

It's been a while for this.

It was just announced today that Mitt Romney will announce his selection for his vice presidential running mate tomorrow morning! The announcement will be made at approximately 9 AM ET in Norfolk, Virginia. Some news reports are now speculating that it is indeed Paul Ryan, probably my personal favorite of the talked about picks, so good news for me.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:34 am

It's official. Romney/Ryan it is.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:10 pm

First post updated to look a bit more fresh.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Sun Aug 12, 2012 1:54 am

Barack Obama
Joe Biden
Mitt Romney
Paul Ryan
Political Party
Democratic
Democratic
Republican
Republican
Positions
President of the United States, former Illinois Senator, former lawyer, former community organizer
Vice President of the United States, former Delaware Senator, former lawyer
Former Massachusetts Governor, businessman at Bain Capital, 2002 Winter Olympics organizer
Current Wisconsin Congressman, current Chairman of the House Budget Committee
Age
51
69
65
42
State of Birth ; Home State
Hawaii ; Illinois
Pennsylvania ; Delaware
Michigan ; Massachusetts
Wisconsin ; Wisconsin
Former Campaigns
Ran for President twice in 2008 and 2012 (successful the first time; second time TBD), ran for Senate once in Illinois in 2004 (successful)
Ran for President twice in 1988 and 2008 (unsuccessful both times), ran for Senate eight times in Delaware from 1972-2008 (successful in all eight)
Ran for President twice in 2008 and 2012 (unsuccessful the first time; second time TBD), ran for Governor once in Massachusetts in 2002 (successful), ran for Senate in Massachusetts in 1994 (unsuccessful)
Ran for Representative seven times in Wisconsin from 1998-2010 (successful in all seven)

The following table shows the often times differing views of Obama and Romney on key issues. Of course there are many, many more issues but these are just a few of the most discussed.

Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Abortion
Supports; "pro-choice" on abortion
Opposes; "pro-life" on abortion
Afghanistan
Relocated troops to Afghanistan but wants to withdraw in a two year time frame
Supports future withdrawal but only depending on the conditions at the time
Birth Control
Wants free contraceptives for women in workplace health plans
Opposes government aid to Planned Parenthood and forced handouts of contraceptives
Gay Rights
Supports same-sex marriage as a right
Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights
Gun Control
Supports gun control but has not made any moves to increase regulation
Opposes strict gun control laws; cites the second amendment in protecting gun ownership as a right
Healthcare
Supports his signature package, the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare"; wants universal healthcare; Supreme Court upheld the law as a tax
Opposes the so-called "Obamacare"; says that it is a priority of his as president to repeal it; wants a different, less universal plan
Immigration
Has deported many illegals; now supports illegals under a certain age to become citizens to become exempt from deportation
Believes in strong border security; would deport illegals and punish employers who hire them; military service could potentially earn them citizenship
Iran
Opposes immediate US involvement; would consider military action if it would prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon
Has no immediate plan to intervene in Iran; would consider military action if it would prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon
Iraq
Wants exit of Iraq and relocation of troops
Wants US presence to remain in Iraq for the time being
Military Spending
Supports decreased spending
Supports increased spending
Taxation
Supports progressive taxation; wants to tax the rich more and the poor less
Opposes tax increases for any class; wants to cut taxes for all
Torture
Opposes; says waterboarding is torture
Opposes; says waterboarding is enhanced interrogation

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:01 am


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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:01 am


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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:53 am

One thing is certain in IL outside of Chicago Nobama is completely hated. IL is a big military state and with Obama being anti military and wanting to eliminate college benefits of troops and to cut their pay in half he doesn't have a good following.
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:56 am

"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:47 pm

TJ! wrote:
"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"
Same sex marriage isn't necessarily a right. He's against discrimination but believes marriage is between a man and a woman, that's not a violation of a right. No where in any document does it say that you're entitled to marry anyone or anything.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:51 pm

Jarrett wrote:
TJ! wrote:
"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"
Same sex marriage isn't necessarily a right. He's against discrimination but believes marriage is between a man and a woman, that's not a violation of a right. No where in any document does it say that you're entitled to marry anyone or anything.
That's still discrimination. You can't seriously tell me that denying two men marriage isn't discriminating against them in any way...
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:08 pm

TJ! wrote:
Jarrett wrote:
TJ! wrote:
"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"
Same sex marriage isn't necessarily a right. He's against discrimination but believes marriage is between a man and a woman, that's not a violation of a right. No where in any document does it say that you're entitled to marry anyone or anything.
That's still discrimination. You can't seriously tell me that denying two men marriage isn't discriminating against them in any way...
It's not if gay marriage isn't a right.

EDIT: Across the country, the majority of states don't currently allow gay marriage because they don't see it that way. Even though it seems like a minor issue and some are accused of bigotry because of their stance, North Carolina changed from a toss up state to a lean Romney state the same week Obama said he supports gay marriage; NC voters struck down a law possibly allowing it. Even Hawaii, very possibly the most liberal state in the country, doesn't allow it.

EDIT 2: Me, while I consider myself conservative over liberal, I find same sex marriage probably the most challenging of the social issues. I can see both sides, though I can stick up for Romney's view because I understand where he is coming from. I see why you might not want the traditional view of marriage messed up, yet at the same time what gay couples do doesn't affect my life, so I really don't care. But still, it's very unlikely that someone's stance on same sex marriage is going to be the deciding factor if I were to vote.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:05 pm

A look at the map for the last four elections (1996, 2000, 2004, 2008):

Dark red represents a state that voted Republican all four times.
Light red represents a state that voted Republican three of the four times.
Purple represents a state that voted twice for each of the four times.
Light blue represents a state that voted Democratic three of the four times.
Dark blue represents a state that voted Democratic all four times.



State
1996 Election
2000 Election
2004 Election
2008 Election
Projected 2012 Winner
Alabama
Bob Dole (50%)
George W. Bush (56%)
George W. Bush (63%)
John McCain (60%)
Mitt Romney
Alaska
Bob Dole (51%)
George W. Bush (59%)
George W. Bush (61%)
John McCain (59%)
Mitt Romney
Arizona
Bill Clinton (47%)
George W. Bush (51%)
George W. Bush (55%)
John McCain (54%)
Mitt Romney
Arkansas
Bill Clinton (54%)
George W. Bush (51%)
George W. Bush (54%)
John McCain (59%)
Mitt Romney
California
Bill Clinton (51%)
Al Gore (54%)
John Kerry (53%)
Barack Obama (61%)
Barack Obama
Colorado
Bob Dole (46%)
George W. Bush (51%)
George W. Bush (52%)
Barack Obama (54%)
Toss Up
Connecticut
Bill Clinton (53%)
Al Gore (56%)
John Kerry (54%)
Barack Obama (61%)
Barack Obama
Delaware
Bill Clinton (52%)
Al Gore (55%)
John Kerry (54%)
Barack Obama (62%)
Barack Obama
Florida
Bill Clinton (48%)
George W. Bush (49%)
George W. Bush (52%)
Barack Obama (51%)
Toss Up
Georgia
Bob Dole (47%)
George W. Bush (55%)
George W. Bush (58%)
John McCain (52%)
Mitt Romney
Hawaii
Bill Clinton (57%)
Al Gore (56%)
John Kerry (54%)
Barack Obama (72%)
Barack Obama
Idaho
Bob Dole (52%)
George W. Bush (57%)
George W. Bush (58%)
John McCain (62%)
Mitt Romney
Illinois
Bill Clinton (54%)
Al Gore (55%)
John Kerry (55%)
Barack Obama (62%)
Barack Obama
Indiana
Bob Dole (47%)
George W. Bush (57%)
George W. Bush (60%)
Barack Obama (50%)
Mitt Romney
Iowa
Bill Clinton (50%)
Al Gore (49%)
George W. Bush (50%)
Barack Obama (54%)
Toss Up
Kansas
Bob Dole (54%)
George W. Bush (58%)
George W. Bush (62%)
John McCain (57%)
Mitt Romney
Kentucky
Bill Clinton (46%)
George W. Bush (57%)
George W. Bush (60%)
John McCain (57%)
Mitt Romney
Louisiana
Bill Clinton (52%)
George W. Bush (53%)
George W. Bush (57%)
John McCain (59%)
Mitt Romney
Maine
Bill Clinton (52%)
Al Gore (49%)
John Kerry (54%)
Barack Obama (58%)
Barack Obama
Maryland
Bill Clinton (54%)
Al Gore (56%)
John Kerry (56%)
Barack Obama (62%)
Barack Obama
Massachusetts
Bill Clinton (62%)
Al Gore (60%)
John Kerry (62%)
Barack Obama (62%)
Barack Obama
Michigan
Bill Clinton (52%)
Al Gore (51%)
John Kerry (51%)
Barack Obama (57%)
Barack Obama
Minnesota
Bill Clinton (51%)
Al Gore (48%)
John Kerry (52%)
Barack Obama (54%)
Barack Obama
Mississippi
Bob Dole (49%)
George W. Bush (58%)
George W. Bush (59%)
John McCain (56%)
Mitt Romney
Missouri
Bill Clinton (48%)
George W. Bush (50%)
George W. Bush (53%)
John McCain (49%)
Mitt Romney
Montana
Bob Dole (44%)
George W. Bush (58%)
George W. Bush (59%)
John McCain (50%)
Mitt Romney
Nebraska
Bob Dole (54%)
George W. Bush (58%)
George W. Bush (59%)
John McCain (50%)
Mitt Romney
Nevada
Bill Clinton (44%)
George W. Bush (50%)
George W. Bush (51%)
Barack Obama (54%)
Barack Obama
New Hampshire
Bill Clinton (49%)
George W. Bush (48%)
John Kerry (50%)
Barack Obama (54%)
Toss Up (leaning Obama)
New Jersey
Bill Clinton (54%)
Al Gore (56%)
John Kerry (53%)
Barack Obama (57%)
Barack Obama
New Mexico
Bill Clinton (49%)
Al Gore (48%)
George W. Bush (50%)
Barack Obama (57%)
Barack Obama
New York
Bill Clinton (60%)
Al Gore (60%)
John Kerry (58%)
Barack Obama (63%)
Barack Obama
North Carolina
Bob Dole (49%)
George W. Bush (56%)
George W. Bush (56%)
Barack Obama (50%)
Toss Up (leaning Romney)
North Dakota
Bob Dole (47%)
George W. Bush (61%)
George W. Bush (63%)
John McCain (53%)
Mitt Romney
Ohio
Bill Clinton (47%)
George W. Bush (50%)
George W. Bush (51%)
Barack Obama (52%)
Toss Up (leaning Obama)
Oklahoma
Bob Dole (48%)
George W. Bush (60%)
George W. Bush (66%)
John McCain (66%)
Mitt Romney
Oregon
Bill Clinton (47%)
Al Gore (47%)
John Kerry (52%)
Barack Obama (57%)
Barack Obama
Pennsylvania
Bill Clinton (49%)
Al Gore (51%)
John Kerry (51%)
Barack Obama (55%)
Barack Obama
Rhode Island
Bill Clinton (60%)
Al Gore (61%)
John Kerry (59%)
Barack Obama (63%)
Barack Obama
South Carolina
Bob Dole (50%)
George W. Bush (57%)
George W. Bush (58%)
John McCain (54%)
Mitt Romney
South Dakota
Bob Dole (47%)
George W. Bush (60%)
George W. Bush (60%)
John McCain (53%)
Mitt Romney
Tennessee
Bill Clinton (48%)
George W. Bush (51%)
George W. Bush (57%)
John McCain (57%)
Mitt Romney
Texas
Bob Dole (49%)
George W. Bush (59%)
George W. Bush (61%)
John McCain (55%)
Mitt Romney
Utah
Bob Dole (54%)
George W. Bush (67%)
George W. Bush (73%)
John McCain (63%)
Mitt Romney
Vermont
Bill Clinton (53%)
Al Gore (51%)
John Kerry (59%)
Barack Obama (67%)
Barack Obama
Virginia
Bob Dole (47%)
George W. Bush (52%)
George W. Bush (54%)
Barack Obama (53%)
Toss Up
Washington
Bill Clinton (50%)
Al Gore (50%)
John Kerry (53%)
Barack Obama (58%)
Barack Obama
West Virginia
Bill Clinton (52%)
George W. Bush (52%)
George W. Bush (56%)
John McCain (56%)
Mitt Romney
Wisconsin
Bill Clinton (49%)
Al Gore (48%)
John Kerry (50%)
Barack Obama (56%)
Barack Obama
Wyoming
Bob Dole (50%)
George W. Bush (68%)
George W. Bush (69%)
John McCain (65%)
Mitt Romney

Territory
1996 Election
2000 Election
2004 Election
2008 Election
Projected 2012 Winner
DC
Bill Clinton (85%)
Al Gore (85%)
John Kerry (89%)
Barack Obama (92%)
Barack Obama


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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:43 pm

Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:03 pm

So Obama remains president?

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:14 pm

SP wrote:
So Obama remains president?
Doubtful
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:16 pm

Oh.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:07 pm

White guy wrote:
Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state
Illinois isn't all. Same with ones like New York, Pennsylvania, etc. It's those stupid big cities that wreck the whole state vote.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:07 pm

SP wrote:
So Obama remains president?
What makes you draw that conclusion?

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:06 am

First and foremost, as to your comment Nick, I don't know what brought it about. But I'd guess you don't really know all about how the election system works in the US. I'm not slamming you though; unfortunately a large portion of Americans probably don't even know (most can't even name the vice president). I'll give you a quick summary without boring you.

It can sometimes happen where the person who gets the most votes overall doesn't win. This has only happened twice before, most recently in 2000. We have something called the electoral college. Candidates get millions of votes, but that end number doesn't always matter. What matters is how many electoral votes you have. You need 270 to win the presidency; there are 538 in total (so basically the majority, since 270 is just over half of 538). Each state has a certain amount of electoral votes attached to it; winning that state gives you those votes. The amounts of electoral votes allotted to each state are determined by that state's population. So big population states like California (55 votes), Texas, (38 votes), New York, and Florida (29 apiece) are worth a lot. Smaller populous states like Montana, South Dakota, and Delaware only get 3. The numbers change every decade or so when the government does the census to see the population changes. This is the electoral map for 2012 (the colors just show how the numbers changed from before):



According to RealClearPolitics (an unbiased website that averages out data from all other sources), Obama has 237 electoral votes for sure (33 away from winning). They say Romney has 191 for sure (79 away from winning). But that leaves 110 undecided votes that could go either way. The states they have listed as toss up states are Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But if you ask me, there aren't that many.

Nevada's 6 votes will probably go to Obama. It's somewhat less likely, yet somewhat safe to say that New Hampshire's 4 and Wisconsin's 10 will as well. If these three states do go for Obama, then 237+6+4+10=257, 13 away from winning. Which leaves six states. North Carolina is going to go for Romney, so 191+15=206. That leaves a few key states left.

Of these remaining five, if Obama were to win Florida, Ohio, or Virginia, he'd win point blank. Romney needs those three. That then leaves Colorado and Iowa. If Romney won the other three, he'd have to win only one of those two and he would win. So in summary of this, Romney needs Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and then either/or Colorado or Iowa to win. That's what it's down to. Obama needs to win one out of Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. Or win both Colorado and Iowa.

I know this is long. But yeah.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:41 am

Jarrett wrote:
White guy wrote:
Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state
Illinois isn't all. Same with ones like New York, Pennsylvania, etc. It's those stupid big cities that wreck the whole state vote.
Gotta love that Capone voted in the 2008 election
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:47 am

White guy wrote:
Jarrett wrote:
White guy wrote:
Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state
Illinois isn't all. Same with ones like New York, Pennsylvania, etc. It's those stupid big cities that wreck the whole state vote.
Gotta love that Capone voted in the 2008 election
Him and his dog, cat, and dead grandparents.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:42 am

I really think it doesn't matter who wins, because in the end, in my opinion, we screwed.

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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:56 am

Richie wrote:
I really think it doesn't matter who wins, because in the end, in my opinion, we screwed.
It's going to take two terms of Romney to even begin to fix this administration's failures.

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US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns
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