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 US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns

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Jarrett
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:13 am

(29) Florida - Romney +1.2
(20) Pennsylvania - Obama + 4.6
(18) Ohio - Obama +2.3
(16) Michigan - Obama +3.0
(15) North Carolina - Romney +3.6
(13) Virginia - Romney +0.5
(10) Minnesota - Obama +5.0
(10) Wisconsin - Obama +4.0
(9) Colorado - Obama +0.5
(6) Iowa - Obama +1.3
(6) Nevada - Obama +2.4
(4) New Hampshire - Obama +1.0

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Jarrett
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:05 am

The other thread I made, I kind of want to devote to election-night-only stuff. I'll definitely be up all night so I'll be updating that thread as well. There are some updates from the last time I posted on here, but I also want to mention that on Monday night, I'll be making my final prediction (numbers and all) for Tuesday.

(29) Florida - Romney +1.4
(20) Pennsylvania - Obama +4.8
(18) Ohio - Obama +2.9
(16) Michigan - Obama +4.0
(15) North Carolina - Romney +3.8
(13) Virginia - Romney +0.3
(10) Minnesota - Obama +5.8
(10) Wisconsin - Obama +5.0
(9) Colorado - Obama +0.6
(6) Iowa - Obama +2.5
(6) Nevada - Obama +2.7
(4) New Hampshire - Obama +1.5

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Jarrett
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PostSubject: Re: US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns   Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:55 am

Jarrett's final prediction for tomorrow:

Obama/Biden 281 - Romney/Ryan 257

My model gives eight of the twelve above states to Obama, all but Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. If it's not 281-257, I think Obama will win with either 290 or 303. (In other words, the two states I have secured for Romney in all scenarios are Florida and North Carolina). In the case that Romney actually wins, it would probably be with 275, 279, or 281.

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